News & Updates
Metrics Maketh Man: The Economic Indicators We Track Define Us
The challenge of summarizing the entire economy through individual indicators is akin to perfectly defining the word “economy” itself. There is an ongoing academic dispute over whether composite indicators or indices are inherently good or bad. Critics object to the arbitrary nature of the weighting process, or the extent to which the performance of individual indicators contributes to movement in a single “score” or composite indicator. Regardless, indices are powerful in their ability to showcase in one score what might not be apparent from examining multiple individual indicators in isolation.
In this post, we take one step back from the debate and instead draw attention to why indicators are selected, rather than whether they should have been selected or combined at all. Our values as a society are revealed in the curation of economic indicators (whether for the Brookings dashboard or UHERO’s Economic Pulse) – we implicitly prioritize certain metrics by elevating them to a position within a dashboard or index. Let’s take a deeper look at a few specific indicators that illustrate this point.
Why We Are Working to Track Hawaii's COVID-19 Federal Funds Spending
Recently, our work to track the State’s progress in spending down federal funds awarded to the State in response to COVID-19 have been highlighted by the House Select Committee on COVID-19 Economic and Financial Preparedness and recent news accounts. The Hawaii Data Collaborative strives to promote a culture of data-informed decision making in Hawaii, by making data that is relevant to our most pressing challenges accessible, relevant, and meaningful.
Given the urgency of need as we continue to navigate post-COVID stresses on our families and communities, and the looming end-of-year timeline for spending down $1.25B in Coronavirus Relief Funds (CRF), we felt the need to work quickly to make sure information about our spending is available on a timely and insightful platform. Equally important are the partnerships that make this possible.
How Good Data Can Advance Health Equity
Research has consistently found Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPI) are at increased risk of a range of preexisting and underlying health inequities, which in turn places members of these communities at increased risk of infection and severe illness from COVID-19. During the current pandemic, the disproportionality of the disease’s impact distills the health inequities borne by our state’s Pacific Islander community: currently, 30 percent of confirmed COVID-19 cases are among non-Native Hawaiian Pacific Islanders, although they constitute only 4 percent of Hawaii’s population. Recent media coverage suggests, despite recognizing Pacific Islanders’ heightened health risks for the disease, Hawaii state health officials were unprepared to adequately address the needs of this institutionally underserved community during the pandemic.
How can Hawaii better serve the health needs of Pacific Islander communities, particularly as the state wrestles with the impacts of COVID-19? Good data can certainly be part of the solution. What might “good data” mean, in this context?
Instead of Relying on Stories, We All Need Access to Better COVID-19 Data
The potential of data lies not in its ability to reinforce stories — that leaves us reliant upon the storytellers. Instead, comprehensive and readily available data facilitate conversations that allow the broader community to see exactly what is happening and, if necessary, question assumptions about our current situation and what lies ahead. Over the last two weeks, it has become clear that state and county leadership do not have full access to the data and expertise needed to manage the disease. And neither does the public.
Checking Up on Hawaii’s Economic Health: Existing Metrics Tell Us Only Pieces of the Story
Although measures of GDP, unemployment, and retail and food sales all help assess the state of the local economy, there are a few caveats. One is data timeliness, or the schedule in which data is published and disseminated. GDP, reported quarterly, and retail and food sales, generally reported monthly, are often too slow to inform policy and planning decisions that need to be made and adjusted daily or weekly. However, Hawaii does do a good job in tracking unemployment claims weekly through the Hawaii Workforce Infonet, at least giving us a sense of the local job market. Another is data completeness, or how comprehensive a dataset is for answering the question at hand – in this case: how well is Hawaii’s economy recovering? Without one single identifiable metric for economic recovery, we need to look at other indicators beyond GDP, unemployment, and retail and food sales.
The Importance of Leading and Lagging Indicators for Ongoing Monitoring of COVID-19 in Hawaii
While it likely makes sense to most of us that these indicators measure different components of COVID-19 management – i.e. new cases, daily test rates, hospitalizations, etc. – it might be more difficult to understand how they all fit together, and why it is important to have a balance of indicators that represent the range of relevant factors for managing COVID-19 locally. One important frame to consider is distinguishing where data points fall along the continuum of leading to lagging indicators.
Making Meaningful Models Mainstream: We Are No Strangers to Informative Modeling
Sometimes events, especially unexpected and dramatic ones, can lead to a renewed perspective of what is occurring in our lives and how we view them. Hawaii’s recent brush with Hurricane Douglas was just such an event. We may not understand all that goes into a reliable weather model, but we have a gut sense of why it’s useful and valuable in saving life and property. For the average person, however, the same cannot yet be said of epidemiological models that study the spread of viruses and disease. While we experience the onset of tropical storms and hurricanes on a regular basis, we do not experience epidemics as frequently, and certainly not pandemics.
The Hawaii Variable: A Data-Based Discussion About COVID-19 in Hawaii
On July 30, 2020, Honolulu Civil Beat hosted an online event bringing together panelists for a data-based discussion around COVID-19 in Hawaii. Topics included review of basic data and epidemiology terminology, different types of indicators that inform understanding of outcomes and what lies ahead, gaps in critical data to better inform our response to the pandemic, and answers to questions from the audience.
Where Does Hawaii Stand in Terms of Publicly Available COVID-19 Data?
Earlier this week, a New York-based nonprofit, Resolve to Save Lives (RSL), headed by the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), released a report outlining “15 essential indictors” that should be reflected in every State COVID-19 dashboard, including in what format the data should be reported and how the data should be stratified by age, sex, ethnicity and geography. Based on this framework, RSL inventoried each State in terms of the data that is currently publicly available. The results for Hawaii are not flattering. Out a possible 100%, Hawaii currently scores at 13%, making available (to RSL’s satisfaction) four out of the 15 recommended indicators:
The Power and Potential of Disaggregated Data
One of the most relevant applications of data disaggregation in Hawaii is regarding race/ethnicity. Asians, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders are at times grouped together under the labels “Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI)” or “Asian and Pacific Islander (API).” These umbrella terms can be useful for analysis—for instance, when survey data doesn’t yield enough subgroup respondents to generate unique analytic categories. However, with the highest percentage of Asians in the country, as well as the largest Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander population in the U.S., Hawaii is better positioned than many states to dig into possible disparities among AAPI subgroups.
HiPAM Launches New Daily COVID-19 Forecast Tool for Hawaii
The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling (HiPAM) work group has launched a new public-facing tool that provides 14-day forecasts of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and fatalities. The tool will be updated daily (Monday through Friday) based on the most current COVID data available in the state.
Data Equity: What Is It, and Why Does It Matter?
The term “data equity” captures a complex and multi-faceted set of ideas. It refers to the consideration, through an equity lens, of the ways in which data is collected, analyzed, interpreted, and distributed. It underscores marginalized communities’ unequal opportunities to access data and, at times, their harm from data’s misuse. It raises the issue of data sovereignty, and the democratization of data. And data equity pushes us to consider the ways that data can reinforce stereotypes, exacerbate problems like racial bias, or otherwise undermine social justice.
Hawaii Appleseed's Gavin Thornton Discusses $100 Million CARES Act Housing Support for Hawaii's Families
Gavin Thornton, Executive Director of the Hawaii Appleseed Center for Law and Economic Justice, discusses recent legislation passed that will provide $100 million of CARES Act funds to folks in need of rental and mortgage support, and why this assistance is necessary to shield the state from even greater costs in the future.
Fly on the Wall: A Glimpse into Developing a COVID-19 Modeling Tool for Hawaii
During a HiPAM convening, the group discussed how to respond to requests from local decision-makers for models and metric guidelines that would help determine when to lift local and domestic travel restrictions, as well as indicators of when restrictions may need to be re-imposed. The subsequent discussion demonstrated the complex array of factors that our state officials and senior executives must consider…
AUW's Lisa Kimura Discusses the Updated ALICE Report, and the Impact of COVID-19 on Hawaii's Struggling Families
Lisa Kimura, Vice President of Community Impact at Aloha United Way, discusses the updated ALICE® report, what it told us about Hawaii’s financially struggling families pre-COVID since the last report was done in 2018, how much Hawaii’s ALICE-and-below population will grow as a result of COVID-19, and the level of broad collaboration necessary to uplift families out of ALICE status.
Fifty-nine Percent of Hawaii Households Estimated to Experience Significant Financial Hardship by the End of 2020
Aloha United Way released an updated report, ALICE®: A Study in Financial Hardship in Hawaii, indicating forty-two percent of Hawaii’s households are struggling to get by. That was pre-COVID-19 arriving to our islands. We partnered with AUW to estimate that in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, an additional 35,000 households will face severe financial hardship by the end of the year.
Dr. Thomas Lee, HI-EMA's Lead Modeler & Forecaster, Discusses Reopening Hawaii to Travel and More
Dr. Thomas Lee, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, also an US Army Medical Officer from the 1984th US Army Hospital Pacific, 9th Mission Support Command, currently serving as lead modeler and forecaster for Hawaii’s Emergency Management Agency (HI-EMA) COVID-19 Emergency Response Team, discussed how he applies modeling to forecast and advise policymakers in their decisions, the potential and efficacy of testing and screening of inbound travelers, a basic explanation of “R naught,” and more.
HiPAM Chair, Dr. Victoria Fan, on the Honolulu Star-Advertiser's COVID-19 Care Conversation
Dr. Victoria Fan, Chair of the Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling (HiPAM) Work Group, appeared on the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s COVID-19 Care Conversation to discuss the HiPAM Work Group, why modeling tools driven by Hawaii-specific data are critical, and the importance of testing visitors and contact tracing efforts as part of reopening Hawaii to inbound travelers.
A Missing Piece to Hawaii’s COVID-19 Response: The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group
The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling (HiPAM) Work Group originally formed out of a collective concern that our state’s decision makers lacked a Hawaii-specific, data-driven modeling tool to inform their decisions in response to COVID-19. Originally comprised primarily of academics and faculty from the University of Hawaii at Manoa, HiPAM has grown to include representatives from the Hawaii Department of Health, major local hospitals, and community nonprofits focused on Hawaii health and well-being.
Hidden Figures and the Continuing Need for Sound Data
Even as we move into a recovery phase and initiate efforts to reboot the economy and restart our lives, sound and timely information will continue to play a key role in those efforts. If we’ve learned anything from these trying times, it is that good decisions are always based on reliable information—and one more thing: good communication.