HiPAM Launches New Daily COVID-19 Forecast Tool for Hawaii

The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling (HiPAM) work group has launched a new public-facing tool that provides 14-day forecasts of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and fatalities. The tool will be updated daily (Monday through Friday) based on the most current COVID data available in the state. The model behind the forecast is based on the COVID-19 Scenarios tool developed at the University of Basel, Switzerland, which was adapted specifically for Hawaii by HiPAM members - led by Thomas Lee, Ph.D., of the Applied Research Lab at the University of Hawaii, and others. As Hawaii continues to ease local social-distancing restrictions while considering options for lifting quarantine requirements for travel, tools like this will be critical for ensuring the best information is available to inform these decisions.

In addition to developing the forecast tool, HiPAM is working to finalize a COVID-19 scenarios tool for longer-term planning. While valid forecasts can only extend out for 14 days, it is important to be able to explore longer-term scenarios of case counts and hospitalizations, and to be able to experiment with potential options for mitigating alarming trends. The scenario tool will allow users to extend forecasts out for six months or more, and introduce hypothetical interventions that would arrest growth curves, or observe the likely effects of easing restrictions when daily cases and hospitalizations are low.

You can check out the new forecast model here, and can expect to see the added scenario tool posted in the coming weeks.