Making Meaningful Models Mainstream: We Are No Strangers to Informative Modeling

Sometimes events, especially unexpected and dramatic ones, can lead to a renewed perspective of what is occurring in our lives and how we view them. Our recent brush with Hurricane Douglas was just such an event.

As the Category One storm passed dangerously north of the islands, we all anxiously watched each news forecast with bated breath. With each passing hour—almost without knowing it—we gained a layman’s command of the language of weather forecasting and the importance of accurate and up-to-date modeling. Who in the islands today doesn’t know what a “cone of uncertainty” is after that past eventful weekend? 

We may not know the nature of all of the data collected by airborne hurricane chasers or what goes into the analysis and computations of meteorologists on the ground, but we have a good grasp of why all of it is important in creating accurate and timely forecasts. We may not understand all that goes into a reliable weather model, but we have a gut sense of why it’s useful and valuable in saving life and property.

We experience the impact of meteorological models in a way that’s immediate and personal. And that makes it meaningful.

Source: NOAA

For the average person, however, the same cannot yet be said of epidemiological models that study the spread of viruses and disease. While we experience the onset of tropical storms and hurricanes on a regular basis, we do not experience epidemics as frequently, and certainly not pandemics.

In addition, epidemiological models are not often placed under the microscope of local and national news coverage—updated, analyzed and explained again and again every hour, by every television station. There is no national Pandemic Channel, like the Weather Channel.

If we had one, we might be in better stead, as a nation and as a community.

Since the start of this pandemic, scientists and public health officials have been pressing hard, not just for more timely and more accurate data models to track and forecast the spread of COVID-19, but for Hawaii decision makers and the public to gain a better understanding of the role that modeling can play in anticipating and preempting the spread of the virus. 

Without a proven and widely accessible vaccine, modeling is one of our best weapons against the disease. They support existing behaviors that ensure our health and safety during a pandemic: wearing masks, practicing social distancing, washing our hands regularly, and avoiding crowds.   

More importantly, data models inform our community leaders who are faced with public health, economic and social decisions that impact all of us. They allow us to scenario when and how to open schools, restart businesses, or resume social and communal activities.

Unfortunately, the average person does not have the same exposure to public health modeling during an epidemic in the same immediate and personal way that they do of weather models. We need to place data modeling front and center during this pandemic in the way that weather models commanded attention during Hurricane Douglas—to preempt outbreaks and to support behaviors that slow the spread of the virus.

As clusters and outbreaks continue to increase, and as testing and contact tracing become a larger part of the forecasting formula, we need to bring all these scattered pieces of information under the disciplined regime of better and more timely data modeling. Only then can we turn the tide, narrow this pandemic’s cone of uncertainty, and put this “coronavirus storm” behind us.  

That’s why the recent Island Voices column in the August 4 issue of the Honolulu Star Advertiser by Istvan Szapudi, of the Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling (HiPAM) work group, was important and on point. He wrote: Our data sets are improving due to better testing and data gathering. This, in turn, increases our ability to forecast better where the viral ‘storm’ is heading. Despite the inevitable COVID-19 fatigue, we have to use all available information to modify our behavior to stall the pandemic.

We are proud to be a partner in HiPAM’s efforts to maintain and publish model results that help us track, preempt, and scenario the course of COVID-19 in Hawaii.